While clearing out some old papers I came across a collection of currency predications for 2008 which I would now like to share with you. I should add that I have no idea where I obtained this data but it made fascinating reading and a good excuse for a quick mid year review of the forex market.
In January 2008 currencies tipped for the top included the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian and Australian dollar. Of these it has been the Euro, Yen and Aussie which have, so far, fulfilled this promise as both Cable and Loonie peaked against the dollar at the end of 2007. But what of the next 6 months? Recent stock market turmoil and raging commodity prices (especially oil) would suggest that the road to recovery for the dollar is still some way off. The dollar decline has been in place since 2002 and even as the dollar index attempts to find some kind of bottom the truth of the matter is that the dollar’s fate is tied to the outcome of the Presidential election. A win for the democrats has usually resulted in a strong dollar, while a win for the Republicans could lead to even further dollar deterioration.
