Back to currency blogging after a rollercoaster summer for the fx markets. No need for me to go over what has been happening but suffice to say that thin August markets had their usual effect with the dollar storming back. However, the real trading starts now as volumes return and we look forward to the US presidential election, the result of which is still too close to call. For the dollar a Democratic win is usually seen as positive, while a Republican win is often followed by dollar weakness.
For what is happening now, last week’s massive weekly downthrust on the euro vs dollar chart and gap up yesterday following the Lehmann Bros debacle shows the dollar’s progress has stalled in a dramatic way. This may be just the cushion which the euro needs to return to 1.49. Look to buy at 1.44 with a short term target of 1.47, stop below 1.41.
Good luck
